Based on statements from Trump, the Iranian foreign minister, and the Pakistani prime minister, Iran and the United States appear closer than ever to reaching a peace agreement.
Meanwhile, driven by rising energy prices caused by geopolitical conflicts, U.S. inflation has hit a three-year high. Although core inflation indicators suggest that price increases have not yet fully spread to the retail consumer sector, this has already altered market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Friday’s data showed that U.S. consumer confidence improved in June, with inflation expectations unexpectedly cooling. All three major U.S. stock indices rose slightly: the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.31%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7%, with all three posting weekly gains.
International oil prices fell, hitting a three-month low. According to Bloomberg, as more oil tankers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, refined oil exports from the Persian Gulf rebounded this month, providing welcome relief to a supply-constrained market.
As market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate outlook shifted from “multiple rate cuts” at the start of the year to “maintaining high rates” or even “rate hikes,” U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both strengthened, putting significant pressure on precious metals, which became one of the victims of the liquidity crunch triggered by the energy shock.International spot gold broke below the 200-day moving average earlier this week and officially entered its first technical bear market in four years on Thursday. Its year-to-date gains have now been wiped out. Although it closed above $4,200 this week, it still posted its second consecutive weekly loss.